Executive summary · how the work cascades

Investment → Land & Water → Habitat → Species response

The Program's logic chain at a glance: dollars secure land and water; land and water build habitat; habitat is what the three target species respond to. Each card pulls live numbers from the section below.

The money
Spent
Annual
Headroom
Inputs
Land
Water
Outputs
Nesting
Roosting
Outcomes
Plover
Whooping crane
Spending · how the money flows
01

Spending

Where the money has gone, year by year, and how cumulative actual expenditures compare to the inflation-adjusted budget and indexed cash ceiling.

Cumulative spending
Pace vs indexed budget
Cash ceiling headroom
Annual expenditure by category
$M · stacked bars · Admin, Land, Water, Science · actuals 2007–2025
Cumulative expenditures and cash ceiling
$M · all categories combined · First Increment + Extension indexed cash ceiling

The dashed expected lines are retained on these per-category panels — even though the headline chart above no longer shows them — so reviewers can see how each spending bucket has tracked against its inflation-adjusted plan over time.

Admin & Science
$M · Admin + Science
Land
$M
Water
$M

Inflation index is the USBR General Property Index applied per workbook; factor resets to 1.000 in 2020 (Extension base year). Actual expenditures are nominal year-of-spend dollars; expected expenditures are the original program estimate restated into each year's dollars, so the two are directly comparable. Single-year actuals can run well above or below estimate because land and water acquisitions are lumpy capital outlays. Estimated expenditures for 2026–2032 are inflated at 3% per year.

Land · what we hold and manage
02

Land

The Program's land portfolio — cumulative acres held by category against the First Increment Land Milestone and Extension Plus-Up, and the river miles managed at the habitat complexes.

Land Interest vs. FI Land Milestone
Bridge segments with PRRIP habitat complexes 8
Purchases, leases, easements, agreements, and trades 75
Cumulative land held
Acres · stacked by category · 2008–2025 · dashed lines mark the 10,000 ac First Increment Land Milestone and the 11,500 ac Plus-Up target

Extension added a land Plus-Up of 1,500 acres for an additional habitat complex. The Program is currently 184 acres short of completing the Plus-Up but is well above the original 10,000 ac First Increment Milestone — during the First Increment, the Program acquired several existing conservation properties to prevent them from losing protection.

Miles of river managed
Cumulative river miles · West + East · 2008–2025

Program Document prioritized acquisition of land in the west half of the AHR. There is now a PRRIP habitat complex in each of those bridge segments. The Plus-Up established a complex in the final bridge segment in the east without a complex.

Water · the Program portfolio
03

Water

The Program's water portfolio — the existing and conceptual projects now scoring toward the Water Milestone across storage, recharge, and recapture, and the year-by-year ledger of the Environmental Account.

WAP projects considered
Operational annual water
5-yr avg annual releases
Annual PRRIP water by project · score and controllability
Acre-feet scored annually toward Water Milestone · 15 projects · grouped by scoring status and operational status
Total annual score AF Operational + conceptual
Controllable
Operational (approved + estimated)
Controllable (storage water + recapture; PRRIP can direct the timing) Not controllable (groundwater recharge — timing set by underlying aquifer)
EA water · accruals, releases, seepage, end-of-year balance
Acre-feet · 2007–2024 (2025 not yet reported)

Releases made to reduce deficits to USFWS target flows and test other flow management actions such as germination-suppression. End-of-year balance is the NET column running balance carried forward each year. Year strip above the chart shows the annual hydrologic condition: Wet · Normal · Dry.

EA water reaching Grand Island by month · FI vs Extension
Annual-avg AF · Grand Island gage · First Increment vs Extension

The seasonal pattern shifted between eras: FI (brown) peaked in April; Extension (teal) is dominated by June germination-suppression flows. FI annual avg ≈ 35K AF/yr; Extension annual avg ≈ 56K AF/yr.

Plover & Tern · habitat → species response
04

Plover & Tern

Off-channel sand and water (OCSW) nesting habitat alongside piping plover and least tern breeding response.

OCSW habitat vs SDM target
5-yr avg breeding pairs
Plover
Tern
5-yr avg fledglings
Plover
Tern
Managed OCSW nesting habitat
Acres · PRRIP and Other · actuals 2007–2025, estimated 2026–2032 · dashed line marks the 210 ac total SDM habitat target

The 210 ac target was set by the Program's 2016 SDM process — roughly 60 ac above the habitat that existed at the time. The program-wide total (PRRIP + Other) first crossed it in 2021. Future years (2026–2032) are estimated based on current PRRIP lands being mined to create habitat.

Piping plover
Off-channel breeding pairs (bars) · fledglings (dots + Theil–Sen trend) · 2007–2025
Interior least tern
Off-channel breeding pairs (bars) · fledglings (dots + Theil–Sen trend) · 2007–2025
Whooping Crane · habitat → species response
05

Whooping Crane

Roosting-habitat suitability — unobstructed channel width and proportion of AHR highly suitable — alongside whooping crane use of the Associated Habitat Reach.

Increase in river miles highly suitable
West of Kearney
East of Kearney
5-yr avg cranes on AHR
Cranes% AWBP
Spring
Fall
5-yr avg use-days on AHR
Spring
Fall
Proportion of AHR highly suitable
Total AHR · visual classification 2007–2018, eCognition 2019–2024

Highly suitable habitat is defined as unobstructed channel widths ≥ 650 ft. Two methods are shown back-to-back: visual classification (dashed, retired after 2018) and eCognition object-based classification (solid, 2019 onward). The 2017–2018 eCognition values have been retired so the two series do not overlap.

Proportion of PRRIP-managed river highly suitable
≥ 650 ft · West and East of Kearney · visual 2007–2018, eCognition 2019–2024

PRRIP-managed transects (n = 186; 69 West of Kearney, 117 East). Visual aerial-photo MUCW for 2007–2018; eCognition object-based MUCW for 2019–2024 — matches the methodology break in the basin-wide chart at left, so the two charts are directly comparable.

Methodology noteDuring 2020–2025, mechanical in-channel management (disking) was intentionally reduced to isolate and assess the effectiveness of germination-suppression flow releases. Some of the apparent post-2020 decline in proportion highly suitable reflects reduced management effort.
Whooping crane use · cranes by season
Spring + Fall counts on the AHR · stacked bars · 2007–2025
Proportion of AWBP using the AHR
Spring + Fall · % of Aransas–Wood Buffalo Population · per-season Theil–Sen trends · 2007–2025
Accountability · what 2006 promised vs. what we delivered
06

Progress vs. the 2006 EIS & Biological Opinion

The 2006 Final EIS and USFWS Biological Opinion set the bar for the First Increment. This scorecard places each commitment against current performance — quantitative where a number was set, directional where the BO specified only “increase.” Where the BO set no Program target, species are scored against the population-viability and recovery benchmarks the BO itself relied on. NEPA compliance for the First Increment rests on 10 formal milestones (Biological Opinion Milestones Document) — the Program has met 9, with only the 130–150k AF water Milestone still in progress.

NEPA milestones met 9of 10 All First Increment Milestones complete except the 130–150k AF water Milestone (in progress).
Tiered ESA consultations 238 Federal water-related activities (2007–2025; CO, NE, WY) given streamlined Section 7 compliance by tiering off the Program’s 2006 programmatic Biological Opinion.
Target species 3 responding+ 1 under study Three central-Platte birds responding (tern delisted 2021; plover above its BO benchmark; crane rising). Pallid sturgeon a research commitment — testing whether central-Platte flow management benefits its lower-Platte habitat.
2006 commitment → today
Status reflects delivery of Program outputs; species response is monitored, not scored against a Program target.
Land
Acres protectedMet · exceeded
2006 target: ≥10,000 ac (Lexington–Chapman) · today: 14,555 ac (146%, crossed ~2012). Marker = objective; bar to 15,000 ac.
Water
Shortage reduction to target flowsIn progress
2006 target: 130–150k AF/yr (Extension reframed 120k) · today: 96.1k AF operational, 124.8k strategy. Markers = 120k / 130k; bar to 150k.
Habitat
Channel width ≥500 ftMet
2006 modeled: +20% acreage >500 ft · today: 28% → 52% of transects (+24 pts), ’98–’06 vs ’18–’24.
OCSW nesting habitatMet
2006: maintain / expand tern–plover nesting · SDM target 210 ac · today: 213.6 ac (met since 2021).
Whooping crane roost suitabilityMet
2006 modeled: +20% wide channel for roosting · today: 17% → 33% of reach ≥650 ft (+94%), nearly doubled.
River under managementMet
2006 modeled: +53,100 ft (~10 mi) braided channel · today: 31.2 mi managed (W 12.3 + E 18.9). Managed extent — broader than braided-mi created.
Species response · vs pre-PRRIP baseline (2002–2006) & BO productivity range
Piping plover
pairsMet · benchmark
BO criteria: increase pairs & fledge ratio · peak BPE 13 → 41 · off-channel fledge ~1.3 (28-day), above the BO productivity range 1.0 stable · 1.13 stabilize · 1.25 recovery (FBO p122–124).
Interior least ternDelisted 2021 · recovered
Federally delisted 2021 (species recovery; range-wide up ~10× over three decades). Central Platte peak BPE 38 → 167; off-channel fledge ~1.2, above the 0.5–1.0/pair stability range (FBO p111–112).
Whooping crane
~10× use-days*Met · directional
BO criterion (directional): improve migration habitat availability & use · use-days ~57 → ~560/yr (5-yr avg), record 2024. *Flyway population (AWBP) rose only ~2.4× over the same window — the reach captures a growing share. No productivity benchmark for this species.
Pallid sturgeon · 4th target speciesResearch underway
Program Document goal is to test — not assume — whether central-Platte flow management improves lower-Platte PS habitat. GC & Service agreed (2021) that a 3-step progression — habitat & genetics research (~$1.4M / 5 yr) → water-management study → adaptive water management — fulfills PS commitments for the Extension. Benefits presumed via the 130k AF flow-shortage reduction but not yet quantified.

Met = 2006 criterion satisfied (suffix marks basis: none = quantitative target · benchmark = at/above the BO’s cited productivity range · directional = BO directional indicator met). In progress = quantitative target partly met. Productivity ranges are population-viability / recovery benchmarks the BO relies on, not First-Increment targets; fledge ratios are off-channel (OCSW) with a 2010 protocol break, so they are scored against the range rather than across the break. Species response is Program-influenced, not solely Program-controlled. Pallid sturgeon is shown as a research commitment, not an outcome — the Program is testing, not assuming, a central-Platte→lower-Platte benefit. Sources: dashboard land / water / OCSW / species data, channel-width transects, the 2006 FEIS & Biological Opinion, the 2021 USFWS interior least tern delisting rule, and the 2021 PRRIP Pallid Sturgeon Agreement Framing Document.